Future scenario building

There are different levels of innovation to be focused on. Where most companies are focused on short term profits, simply because shareholders demand fast results, long term vision will in the end turn out to be more profitable and effective.

Especially companies that are prepared for major events will come out stronger, for examples during major recessions and other global trends that will bring major shifts to the market. Just as the internet, social media and environmental sustainability are now reshaping our current landscape.

At Koos we are constantly spotting new trends to remain on top of our (future) markets. Koos created a simple and effective “Future scenario building” tool that gives insights into the impact and likeliness that these trends will have on our category, brand and products. Different scenarios can than be created around the most important trends.

These scenarios are explored in more detail to determine their exact implications to give direction to the different strategies to be created for each one of them, including future brand & product (development) directions.

A great example is the two scenarios we’ve helped to build for Origin Energy. Early 2008 they wanted to position themselves as the most sustainable energy provider of Australia. Two likely scenarios were created, one in which there was a sustained economic growth and a fast introduction of the ‘Green’ trend of environmental sustainability. In this scenario the brand and product focus was directed at the emotional and green aspects of feeling good about saving the planet. In scenario two we predicted the global financial crisis, where financial sustainability would be of greater influence than environmental sustainability. In this scenario we rolled out a product portfolio to help consumers reduce consumption and therefore save money (and the planet).

Being prepared for the GFC, Origin managed to maintain their sustainable aspirations while offering their customers a strong and relevant product & service portfolio.

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