2010 will be undoubtedly the start of another interesting decade. Has the global recession really ended? Will the aftermath cause pain for years to come? With varying predictions on the length and severity of the downturn, decision makers are unsure of the next steps. In such uncertainty, it suddenly becomes essential to develop alternative scenarios, study their impacts on consumers and businesses and be prepared to act accordingly.
Using morphological psychology to intuitively understand social trends.
In analysing trends, two tensions or in other words four influences can be singled out by morphological psychology:
– stability vs progress
– inner influences vs outer influences
Put together, our two tensions form an intuitive model to help think of trends in a schematic and systematic way. Since 1990, four distinctive trend periods have been identified and analysed:
– 1990-1995: Optimism; Don’t Worry be Happy the motto of the day
– 1995-2000: Ambition, the nightmare of the time
– 2000-2005: Cocooning, the buzzword of the era
– 2005-2010: Get Real!
1990-1995: Don’t Worry Be Happy, the motto of the day
After the recession of the late eighties in most countries and the cold war ending, everything was looking bright. Economies around the world started buzzing and globalization accelerated. Political barriers came down. Gorbatcshow lived the Perestroika. The Berlin Wall was the decade defining symbol, was torn down literally by the people. Optimism was the defining sentiment and this was evident with the birth of the internet, launch of Windows 95, Hotmail.
The nineties started with the baby boomers of the sixties entering into their middle ages which in terms of consumer behaviour implied that they had more income to spend than any generation before. Consumers became less price conscious and demanded a greater variety in products among retailers and globalisation paved the way for the availability of more exciting products and brands. The trend of brand imagery had just begun.
1995-2000: Ambition/ Girl Power, the nightmare of the time?
The nineties was also an era of supermodels. Boys, anyone who doesn’t remember the time of the supermodel? Fast fun and shallow, brands and image was everything. In technology, internet and mobile telephony fundamentally changed how we lived our lives and how we interrelated to each other. Within five years we went from brick like Motorola’s to shmick multifunction, tiny gadgets.
Brand was the mantra of the day. Even read by the mass public, like Max in Germany. Constantly featuring brands and discussing advertising. SuperBowl became the battle ground for super ads.
2000-2005: Cocooning, the buzzword of the era
After a great period of no worries and invulnerability, the new millennium started with terror attacks, the burst of the internet, telco & banking bubble and corporate scandals. Psychologically during the nineties we had been in a hyperdrive that could not be sustained and lead to typical overexubernace. The higher you fly the bigger the fall. The crashing twin towers were all but a symbol manifesting what had already changed.
Until 2005 we observed the deep seated insecurity about the world and what to live for. Studies globally showed that close relationships with family and friends became more important. Life happened more at home – back from 2nd and 3rd place to first place. Consumers were indulging themselves in retail therapy, pampering, and extreme makeovers to forget about the reality. There was a surge in the usage of credit cards and property prices boomed. Money was easily available and saving was out. Gen Y thought money could be saved, later.
New technologies like broadband, DVD, hybrid vehicles, LCD emerged. The big screen TV as window into the outside world – but behind safe glass. Local shopping re-emerged as much as getting to know your own neighbor (the one you never met before because you were never in). Email became the standard form of written communication. Google, Wikipedia, Apple were some of the popular brands. Broadband started to emerge, turning the information highway into a flood of possibilities.
2005-2010: Getting Real!
In 2005 we saw a pronounced shift. Consumers started to literally realize that the good times can’t just roll on. The façade was clearly crumbling and campaigns like Dove-real beauty speak to that sentiment. Farmers markets propped up everywhere and organic food gained popularity worldwide.
It was clear that shallow consumerism and image conscious brand facades would not work much longer. Emotional depth of experience was becoming more important than quantity of experiences. This also translated further into relationships and increased birthrates. Kids were not, like in the nineties, a barrier to fun, but integral part of fulfillment.
Trend predictions for 2010 and Beyond: Time for the big “Clean Up”
During the 2005-2010 period the new value systems have been shaping up. The GFC as a cathartic event accelerated this and provides a cleaner slate to live up to those values.
In analyzing our continuous research globally, we predict the 5 key trends that will impact numerous aspects of our lives.
Trend predictions for 2010 and Beyond: Time for the big “Clean Up”
During the 2005-2010 period the new value systems have been shaping up. The GFC as a cathartic event accelerated this and provides a cleaner slate to live up to those values.
In analyzing our continuous research globally, we predict the 5 key trends that will impact numerous aspects of our lives.
1. Reality Bites
We see already that credit card use is down, debit card use is up. Shopper data tells us we buy more on value. From net spenders we will become net savers and (re)build wealth quickly. Sovereign debt will ensure this happening from governmental level to every individual. Gen Y, although often criticized, will likely be the leaders in this trend. In social investment it will mean understanding that the foundations have to be rebuilt. The next decade will see a strong focus on educational, financial, health and community investment.
2. Image is nothing, substance is everything
The ‘post modern consumer’ will not consume mindlessly anymore. Consumers will drive and expect clear evaluation criteria. What will make them feel good about their purchase and themselves is no more a shallow image – or even the brand. They will ok at sustainability aspects and Corporate Social Responsibility as much as image and brand promise. Consumers will want top know whether the corporate brand treats their employees well. How long they stay there, what social programs they have, how they manage their suppliers in that regard. It is going to be a rather scary new world for marketers, but more so management teams that will have to balance the capital with the consumer markets.
It comes in handy then that more and more funds now ask for sustainability and CSR report cards, clearly realizing the risk and opportunity inherent.
Thinking this trend through, it will profoundly impact the consumption of everything. In particular food, the stuff we literally put into our bodies.
In the next decade food and beverage companies will be held much more responsible for what they do and make and how they communicate it. Previous glossing over of negative aspects will not be acceptable. It will not stop at the product and corporate, it will stop at wanting to know how, for example, the company is involved in ensuring future sustainability of agricultural production.
3. Take Responsibility & participate
The end nineties and early 2000s were beautifully irresponsible. Our research showed clearly that consumers did not want to take responsibility. They delegated everything to the government and corporations. From their food decisions to financial decisions to sustainability. In turn, they did not feel responsible for their actions. The next decade will see that we take responsibility. We will learn, query and get involved. Not just critical, but constructive. Companies and government will see increased levels of participation and will need to embrace it early.
4. Short and Long Termism
The hype of instant gratification and everything now is out of the window. We think longer term. Whether that is our lives, friendships, investments, impact of what we do (travel, eating, wearing…). Financial investment will become more long term. Not just by mom and pop investors, but also institutions
This does not mean that everything 24/7 and responsiveness in service are not needed. They will be a given. But we will accept that a 24 hour call centre in our own country is not great for employees. But it will be perfectly fine with call centers in other countries in decent time zones.
5. The truth is on the internet
Consumers are now more value oriented. Specific behaviors that have changed include researching products (& services) completely before buying. What we see is that where brands used to be looking for customers using advertising, the customer is now looking for brands using social media & other website (such as youtellme.com). Before we buy our camera online, we now browse forums and other ‘transparant’ consumer feedback sites to find out the truth behind brand & product. The internet provides us with unparallelled amounts of true and honest brand and product customer feedback.
Customers are empowered and demand brands that create transparant and meaningful experiences. On twitter people are complaining about broken iPhones & warranty issues and how they are being screwed over by telephone providers. These new ‘consumer product experts’ will be be able to make or break a product/brand. The rest of us simply follow the referrals of these new ‘social media shopping queens’. Transparancy and honesty have become entry tickets.
We predict a massive shift from ads to transparent products as the main medium for transferring brand image. Developing products that deliver true and meaningful experiences will become a main brand strategy tool.
